In 17th century Amsterdam, tulips became more valuable than gold. At the height of what is now known as “Tulip Mania,” a single bulb could sell for the price of a house. It was one of the earliest recorded economic bubbles, driven by speculation, scarcity, and the belief that prices would keep rising indefinitely. The end result however was that the market collapsed, values evaporated, and many were left holding assets (tulip bulbs) worth only a fraction of what they had paid.
Fast forward to 2026, and while tulips no longer dominate financial markets, the underlying lesson feels very familiar. We are once again in a period where traditional assumptions about value, stability, and risk are being challenged. Even gold, long considered a safe haven, has shown volatility as global uncertainty reshapes investment behavior. When “safe” no longer feels safe, it becomes much harder to rely on historical patterns.
Today’s global economy is anything but predictable. Geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies, and rising energy costs are creating ripple effects across nearly every industry. Businesses are not just dealing with higher expenses, they are navigating an environment where pricing, demand, and supply chains can change quickly and without warning. That instability doesn’t stay contained at the macro level. It flows directly into customer behavior and, ultimately, into your accounts receivable.
You may already be seeing some of these pressures show up in subtle but important ways:
- Customers requesting extended terms despite stable order volumes
- Increased disputes tied to freight, fuel, or tariff-related surcharges
- Sudden changes in purchasing patterns as companies try to conserve cash
- Payment delays justified by “temporary” external factors
- Greater reliance on partial payments or installment arrangements
Individually, these may appear manageable. Collectively, they signal a broader shift, one where financial pressure is being passed along the supply chain, often landing squarely on the credit function.
What makes this environment particularly challenging is that many of these issues are not driven by poor management, but by external forces. Good companies are being squeezed. Margins are tightening. Access to capital is becoming more selective. And when that happens, even well-intentioned customers begin to make decisions that prioritize their survival over their obligations.
This is why you can’t afford to simply “tiptoe” through credit decisions in 2026. Passive monitoring and reactive collections are no longer enough. Credit professionals must be more deliberate, more analytical, and more proactive than ever before. That means reassessing credit limits, tightening documentation, monitoring trends in real time, and having candid conversations with both customers and internal stakeholders.
The lesson from tulip mania isn’t just about speculation, it’s about the danger of assuming that value will hold simply because it always has. In today’s environment, that assumption can be costly. Stability must be verified, not assumed.
Because in a market where even gold can lose its shine, the last thing you want is to discover too late that your “safe” customers weren’t as safe as they appeared.
Your thoughts and comments (nseiverd@cmiweb.com) are most welcome!
Nancy Seiverd, President
CMI Credit Mediators, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Image by freepik.com
